The regression to the mean bias

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2024

This is the tendency to expect or predict that an extreme or unusual outcome is likely to be followed by a more average or typical outcome, without considering the specific causes or factors that may have contributed to the extreme outcome. For example, if we have hired a candidate who has performed exceptionally well on their first few assignments, we may be more likely to expect or predict that they will continue to perform well, without considering the specific skills, support, or opportunities that may have contributed to their success. The regression to the mean bias can cause us to make unrealistic or overoptimistic hiring decisions, and it can lead us to overlook the value of feedback, learning, or improvement in the hiring process.

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