The gambler's fallacy

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2024

This is the tendency to believe that a random event or outcome is more likely to occur because it has not occurred recently, or because it is overdue. For example, if we have not hired a candidate from a certain background or demographic group in a while, we may be more likely to believe that we should hire a candidate from that group now, without considering the individual qualifications or suitability of the candidate. The gambler's fallacy can cause us to make biased or arbitrary hiring decisions, and it can lead us to overlook the value of merit, fairness, or consistency in the hiring process.

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